Can Sporting KC claim first-ever win over Austin FC at Q2 Stadium?

Sporting Kansas City are fresh off a 3-1 win over the LA Galaxy thanks to goals from Capita, Dejan Joveljic, and Calvin Harris. Harris was the star of the show, scoring and tallying two assists.

The victory ended an eight-game winless streak in all competitions for the Wizards. Indeed, both of Sporting Kansas City’s wins this season have come against the Galaxy. Raphael Wicky and his side are now chasing a third victory of the campaign as they travel to Q2 Stadium to face Austin FC in a Western Conference showdown. It is a stadium that hasn’t been kind to Sporting. The Kansas City club have never won in Austin.

Despite being the league’s second-lowest in terms of salaries, Sporting Kansas City are aiming to overcome the Verde.

Austin sit 13th in the Western Conference. While the Verde are only two places above Sporting Kansas City, six points separate the teams. Head coach Nico Estevez has seen his side fail to win its last two MLS matches. A 2-2 draw away to Minnesota United and a 5-0 thrashing at the hands of San Diego FC have left Austin limping into this weekend’s match.

Wicky’s 4-4-2 offers hope

Sporting’s struggles have been well documented. However, the win over the Galaxy showed what this team can do when deployed in a system that actually fits the personnel. The Wizards looked sharper in every phase, pressing high, breaking quickly, and using their speed in wide areas to stretch the opposition.

Wicky’s return to a 4-4-2 was central to the improvement. Taylor Calheira partnered Joveljic up front, while Capita and Harris provided pace down the flanks. In midfield, Lasse Berg Johnsen was joined by Zorhan Bassong, whose energy transformed the center of the park. The midfield won the ball. The wide players got forward and stretched the defense, and defense kept its shape for a change.

The key question is whether Wicky sticks with the setup. Capita was substituted at halftime against the Galaxy and could miss the trip through injury.

Numbers show flaws on both sides

Sporting Kansas City have scored only 11 goals in 12 matches, averaging fewer than one per game. Joveljic has six goals and one assist, meaning he has contributed to 64% of the club’s goals. Defensively, Sporting have allowed 33 goals, an alarming 2.75 per game.

Sporting Kansas City are not only on pace to concede more than last season’s MLS leading 70, but they could set a new MLS single-season record.

Austin’s numbers are not much better. The Verde have scored 18 goals in 13 matches, averaging 1.4 per game, while conceding 26 times. Myrto Uzuni leads the club with five goals, Christian Ramirez has four, and Facundo Torres has supplied five assists.

Austin rank 27th in MLS with an xG of 14.3. Sporting are dead last with a miserable 9.4. Although Sporting have scored 11 times, the team have scored from several low-quality chances.

History favors Austin

Austin won both meetings last season, including a 1-0 victory at Q2 Stadium and a 2-1 win at Sporting Park. In five previous meetings in Austin, the Verde have won all five and outscored Sporting Kansas City 13-7.

Sporting have won just three of the clubs’ 11 all-time meetings. The one recent bright spot came in preseason, when Sporting defeated Austin 2-0 at the Coachella Valley Invitational. Joveljic and Daniel Salloi scored in the fixture.

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